Evidence-Based Selling

Your Best Leads Are Already in Your Database

Recruiting firms spend thousands on lead gen tools to find strangers. Their actual best leads — the second-degree connections of every happy placement — are sitting untouched in their own database.

Evan O'ConnorFebruary 8, 20264 min read

You paid $50K for intent data to find strangers who might need your services. Meanwhile, your happiest client is connected to 12 hiring managers who need you right now.

Nobody checked.

The 70% Problem

Staffing firms fill less than 30% of roles from their existing database. The other 70% is cold outreach into the void.

Think about that. You've spent years building relationships. You have thousands of contacts. You've made placements that generated real trust. And seven out of ten times, you're starting from scratch with a stranger.

<30%
of roles filled from existing database
Source: Industry data

The Science of Weak Ties

This isn't a hunch. Rajkumar et al. (2022) studied 20 million LinkedIn users and 2 billion new ties over five years, published in Science. Their finding: moderately weak ties — exactly the kind of second-degree connections that sit invisible in your database — create the most job mobility.

Granovetter's landmark 1973 study found the same thing: 83% of people who found jobs through contacts used acquaintances, not close friends.

The network layer that matters most is the one you can't see.

The Intent-Action Gap

83%
of people willing to make referrals
Source: Texas Tech University
29%
who actually follow through
Source: Texas Tech University

The gap isn't willingness. It's friction. When you say "do you know anyone?" you're asking someone to search their mental rolodex, evaluate fitness, and take initiative. That's work. Most people opt out.

When you say "would you introduce me to Bob, who just posted 3 roles?" you've done the work for them. The referral is one click away.

Evidence Blindness makes every ask vague. Solving it makes every ask specific.

Cold Outbound Is Getting Killed

Multiple staffing leaders confirmed the same trend in our validation calls.

Joe Myers, CEO of a $100M+ IT staffing firm: "It is a fact — access is harder than it's ever been."

Erin MacKenzie watched her firm's monthly jobs drop from 136K average to 46K. Cold outreach into a declining market is a losing strategy.

The firms that can generate warm introductions from their existing network will outperform firms that keep cold-calling harder. The Multiplication Effect isn't theoretical — it's survival math.

The Warm Path Numbers

MetricCold/TraditionalWarm/ReferralImprovement
Hire rate2-5% from job boards34% from referrals7-17x
Time to fill55-60 days29-40 days30-55% faster
Cost per hire$4,683 avg$1,000-3,50050-85% cheaper
4-year retention25% from job boards45%+ from referrals80% better

Every metric improves. Not by percentage points — by multiples.

The Delta Airlines Story

At IntelAgree, my team had a happy customer — Jay Ferguson, chief legal officer at Ronstadt. We manually went through his 5,000 LinkedIn connections, found roughly 200 potential buyers, cross-referenced with $150K/year in intent data, and discovered Delta Airlines was actively shopping for contract management.

We asked Jay for an intro. His response: "Yeah, I golf with Bob from Delta. Happy to do it."

One warm intro. Into a Fortune 500 deal. From data that was sitting in plain sight.

The whole process took a team days of manual work. It shouldn't have to.

Being First Matters More Than Being Best

Adam from Eighty20 Consulting hammered this point: "Every staffing company wants to be in the first-to-know chair."

If a CFO moves companies and you find out today, you call tomorrow. If you find out from LinkedIn in two weeks, you're the fourth call.

In staffing, being first to a warm intro is worth more than being the best pitch in a competitive process.

The Bottom Line

Your CRM has 10,000 contacts. Your recruiters actively use 200. The other 9,800 aren't dead leads. They're a map you haven't read yet.

Every placement you've ever made created a web of potential introductions. The data exists. The willingness exists. The system to connect them doesn't — yet.

Stop spending money to find strangers. Start seeing the opportunities you already have.

Stop leaving revenue on the table

WarmPath tells you when to ask, who to ask about, and why they'll say yes. Join 40+ design partners launching March 2026.